Science vs Fiction

Proposition 1: In 2025, electric cars can be fully charged in five minutes and achieve a range of up to 1,000 kilometres (621 miles).

I need to give the euphoria brake pedal a little tap because, unfortunately, it’s not going to happen that soon. Electric vehicles with 1,000 kilometres [621 miles] of range that can be fully charged in just five minutes will become a reality for sure, but not by 2025. That requires an all-new generation of batteries – talking about solid-state batteries – and the vehicles’ on-board charging systems need to be modified before that kind of technology – which, of course, is highly attractive and marks a breakthrough – will go into mass production. Now, before electric vehicle sceptics start rejoicing, research centres and development departments are intensively working on those objectives and I can share with you that they’re not far from achieving them under laboratory conditions. I feel that 2030 is realistic.

Prediction: “Thumbs up!” Work in progress

Proposition 2: Hydrogen will never make it into mass production in the passenger car sector.

Be careful with using the word ‘never’ – I wouldn’t exclude hydrogen in the passenger car sector at this juncture so explicitly. It’s far too early for such a proposition because it’s mainly a question of availability – availability of green hydrogen and the related infrastructure. While both are still in scarce supply, H₂ is going to prevail only in the commercial vehicle segment or with stationary applications. Consequently, it’s too early for mass production of fuel cell systems, but I wouldn’t totally exclude it because it’s not a question of technology but a question of availability.

Prediction: When … then

Proposition 3: Battery-electric powertrains will come out winning in the truck segment too.

For most commercial vehicles, that’s an emphatic ‘Yes!’ Development and rollout of the powertrain technology for electric trucks are making great strides. However, that calls for some differentiation: for long-haul purposes – in other words with heavy-duty trucks – fuel cells are going to gain ground as well, or commercial vehicles with hydrogen engines.

Prediction: Yes … to some extent

Proposition 4: The car of tomorrow will be operated by means of a joystick.

I’m deeply convinced that future cars will no longer need to have a steering wheel. It doesn’t need to be a joystick either but new operating and HMI [human-machine interface] concepts are going to go into mass production and will no longer need a steering wheel. Aircraft are flown without steering wheels too. The elimination of the mechanical connection between the steering wheel actuator and the rack and pinion actuator creates many new freedoms for designing the cabin, as well as realising previously unfeasible functions and features for higher safety, convenience and agility that were not possible using current, conventional steering systems.

Prediction: It’s a fact

Proposition 5: The first car made from 100% recycled materials will soon be ready for mass production.

Unfortunately, not. That will still take some more time. The circular economy in automotive engineering is growing massively and gaining momentum – that’s truly a good trend. However, today’s vehicles, particularly in terms of strength and weight, have been developed to a level of sophistication combining safe and dynamic handling. Developing appropriate materials from the circular economy and introducing these into the automotive development process in that regard is going to take some more time. The automobile practically needs to be redefined in many of its aspects to enable different designs incorporating the characteristics of the new – recycled – materials. But once again, the importance of subjects such as circular economy and recycled materials are going to increase exponentially in view of the subject of sustainability.

Prediction: Will become a reality

Proposition 6: Schaeffler will develop a complete, proprietary electric car

We’re not an automaker and don’t intend to become one either. As a motion technology company, motion of every kind is our business. Whether in rotating wind power systems or in the form of electric powertrains, mechatronic chassis elements or even complete chassis platforms for new mobility concepts: Schaeffler develops more and more highly functional and complex systems. We’re truly open-minded in all directions but Schaeffler is not going to build automobiles.

Prediction: No chance!

Proposition 7: The transportation sector is going to achieve the specified EU climate goals.

Unfortunately, it won’t because achieving those goals requires another major joint effort. The automotive industry very quickly managed to develop a wide range of electric car models and to offer these for sale to customers. However, we also need willingness to buy them, availability of green electricity, charging infrastructure and perhaps additional incentives to boost acceptance and use of those vehicles. That’s the only way for us to achieve the climate goals … it does take a joint effort.

Prediction: Not by doing business as usual